Enhancing E-Commerce Competitiveness in Batam Through Precision Marketing Using Apriori Algorithm and System Dynamics Simulation
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.30871/jaic.v10i2.10842Keywords:
Apriori Algorithm, Batam, E-Commerce, Marketing Precision, System DynamicsAbstract
The rapid growth of e-commerce in Indonesia, particularly in Batam as a Special Economic Zone (SEZ), has intensified competition among businesses, especially small and medium enterprises (SMEs). This study aims to develop a data-driven precision marketing approach by integrating the Apriori algorithm and system dynamics modeling. The dataset consisted of 10 apparel-category transactions collected from an SME-based e-commerce context in Batam during April 2025. Apriori analysis was conducted using a minimum support of 0.20 and a minimum confidence of 0.60 to identify association rules among products. The results show that the strongest rule was Casual Wear → Traditional Clothing, with a confidence value of 0.75 and a lift of 1.07, indicating its potential for cross-selling and product recommendation strategies. These association rules were then integrated into a system dynamics model through the recommendation relevance parameter and evaluated using three simulation scenarios: baseline, moderate intervention, and strong intervention over a 12-month horizon. The simulation results indicate that the strong intervention scenario produced the best performance, with recommendation relevance of 0.35, conversion rate of 0.135, active customers of 130.520, loyal customers of 24.942, and revenue of Rp. 3.26 million, outperforming the baseline scenario. These findings suggest that precision marketing based on association rules can improve marketing performance directionally, especially in terms of conversion, customer loyalty, and revenue. However, the model is exploratory and intended as a strategic decision-support tool rather than a fully calibrated predictive model. This study provides practical insights for SMEs in adopting simple analytical approaches to strengthen marketing effectiveness and support the development of Batam’s digital economy ecosystem.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Dimas Akmarul Putera, Nadia Widari Nasution, Dwi Ely Kurniawan, Arief Andika Putra, Abdul Mutalib Bin Leman, Anastasia Anastasia
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