Algoritma Triple Exponential Smoothing Untuk Prediksi Trend Turis Pariwisata Jatim Park Batu Saat Pandemi Covid-19
The level of tourism visits in 2021 both local and foreign to Indonesian tourism has decreased drastically. The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the causes of this loss. In the last 1 year, the level of tourism has dropped dramatically due to this pandemic. The impact on a country is an economic recession, Singapore is a country that is experiencing a severe recession of up to -40%, a country is a country that also depends, one of which is on tourism. Jatim Park Batu is a tourism learning park and family recreation area in Batu, East Java. Jatim Park is a well-known tourism object in East Java. The uncertainty of the number of tourists each month affects the operational management of Jatim Park in making every decision, both technical and strategic decisions. The researcher proposes to use the Triple Exponential Smoothing algorithm, the Holt Winters model, where this algorithm is classified as a prediction algorithm that can consider trend and seasonal factors. The method of measuring accuracy uses the MAPE (Mean Absolute Percetage Error) method. Tests were carried out by initiating the alpha beta gamma parameter 30 times and obtained an average of 9%.
"Kementrian Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif / Badan Pariwisata dan Ekonomi Kreatif Republik Indonesia," Pemerintah Indonesia, 2020. [Online]. Available: kemenparekraf.go.id/. [Accessed Januari 2020].
S. Oktarianisa, "CNBC Indonesia," CNBC Indonesia, 14 July 2020. [Online]. Available: https://www.cnbcindonesia.com/news/20200714102931-4-172483/resesi-minus-41-ekonomi-singapura-terparah-sejak-merdeka.
Sugiyanto & Rinci K.H, "Implementasi Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Dalam Peramalan Penjualan Pulsa Elektrik", SCAN : Jurnal Teknologi Informasi dan Komunikasi, vol XI no 1 Februari 2016
Ratih Y.H, "Implementasi Metode Triple Exponential Smoothing Untuk Prediksi Penjualan Alat Kesehatan", Evolusi: Jurnal Sains dan Manajemen. vol 8 no 1 Maret 2020
Bossarito Putro, M. Tanzil Furqon & Satrio H.W, "Prediksi Jumlah Kebutuhan Pemakaian Air Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing (Studi Kasus: PDAM Kota Malang)", Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer. vol 2 pp 4679-4686 no 11 November 2018
R.Laksmana, E.Santoso, and B.Rahayudi, "Prediksi Penjualan Roti Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing(Studi Kasus : Harum Bakery)," Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer, vol. 3, no. 5, p. 4933, 2019.
B. D. S. B. R. AmaliahGusfadilah, "Implementasi Metode Exponential SmoothingUntuk Prediksi Bobot Kargo Bulanan Di Bandara Internasional I Gusti Ngurah Rai," Jurnal Pengembangan Teknologi Informasi dan Ilmu Komputer, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 1875-1882, 2019.
S. Alfarisi, "Sistem Prediksi Penjualan Gamis Toko Qitaz," Journal of Applied Business and Economics, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 80-95, 2017.
J. Nangi, S. H. Indrianti, and B. Pramono, “Peramalan persediaan obat menggunakan metode Triple Exponential Smoothing (Tes) (studi kasus : Instalasi Farmasi rsud kab. Muna),” semanTIK, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 135–142, 2018.
K. D. Hartomo, S. Y. Prasetyo, and R. A. Suharjo, “Prediksi Stok dan Pengaturan Tata Letak Barang Menggunakan Kombinasi Algoritma Triple Exponential Smoothing dan FP-Growth,” Jurnal teknologi informasi dan ilmu komputer, vol. 7, no. 5, p. 869, 2020.
M. A. Maricar, “Analisa Perbandingan Nilai Akurasi Moving Average dan Exponential Smoothing untuk Sistem Peramalan Pendapatan pada Perusahaan XYZ”, jsi, vol. 13, no. 2, pp. 36-45, May 2019.
Copyright (c) 2021 Safor Madianto
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International (CC BY-SA 4.0) ) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).